Ahead of tonight’s Oscars, our Festivals Editor Dallas King makes his predictions on what will win, what should win and who should have been nominated.
Best Picture
Nomadland is the clear favourite but the preferential ballot system of ranking all the nominees has led to some interesting results in previous years (La La Land & Moonlight anyone?). Realistically the only film that could stop the Nomadland juggernaut is Promising Young Woman. It is surprising not to see Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom make the cut given it could have both leading actor winners in it.
The Father
Judas And The Black Messiah
Nomadland (Will Win)
The Trial Of The Chicago 7
Should have been nominated: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Director
Lee Isaac Chung – Minari
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
David Fincher – Mank
Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round
Chloe Zhao – Nomadland
Should have been nominated: Christopher Nolan (Tenet)
Actor In A Leading Role
In any other year, Hopkins would have walked it for his heartbreaking performance in The Father but Boseman looks set to win a posthumous Oscar for his incendiary role in Ma Rainey, a fitting tribute to a talent that will be sorely missed.
Riz Ahmed – Sound Of Metal
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Will Win)
Anthony Hopkins – The Father (Should Win)
Gary Oldman – Mank
Steven Yeun – Minari
Should have been nominated – Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)
Actress In A Leading Role
To be honest, this is anyone’s game with the exception of Kirby given that each other actress has bagged one of the major awards.
Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day – Billie Holliday Versus The World
Vanessa Kirby – Pieces Of A Woman
Frances McDormand – Nomadland
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (Will Win & Should Win)
Should have been nominated: Elizabeth Moss (The Invisible Man)
Actor In A Supporting Role
Kaluuya has been the favourite all awards season, sweeping every major award for his well deserved performance. However, the appearance of Stanfield in the category (which poses the question of who is the lead if both Judas and the Black Messiah are supporting), could lead to a split of the vote allowing Paul Raci to nip in and steal the award.
Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial Of The Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas And The Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr – One Night In Miami
Paul Raci – Sound Of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield – Judas And The Black Messiah
Should have been nominated: Mark Rylance (The Trial Of The Chicago 7)
Actress In A Supporting Role
This category was shaping up to be as unpredictable as Best Actress but on the final lap, Yuh-Jung Yeun looks set to become the first Korean actor to win an Oscar.
Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman – The Father
Amanda Seyfried – Mank
Yuh-Jung Yeun – Minari
Should have been nominated: Ellen Burstyn (Pieces Of A Woman)
Original Screenplay
Judas And The Black Messiah
The Trial Of The Chicago 7
Should have been nominated: Palm Springs
Adapted Screenplay
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Father (Will Win & Should Win)
One Night In Miami
The White Tiger
Should have been nominated: The Invisible Man
Animated Feature
In increasing danger of becoming the Oscar For Best Pixar Film, it would be nice to see an upset and Wolfwalkers take home the gold.
Onward
Over The Moon
A Shaun The Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul (Will Win)
Wolfwalkers (Should Win)
International Feature Film
Fresh of the BAFTA win for Best Film In A Foreign Language, Another Round is the favourite to win. Especially given Thomas Vinterberg has a Directing nomination as well. The only film which could cause an upset would be the stunning and harrowing Quo Vadis Aida?
Another Round (Will Win & Should Win)
Better Days
Collective
The Man Who Sold His Skin
Quo Vadis, Aida?
Should have been nominated: Apples
