93rd Academy Awards – Predictions

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Ahead of tonight’s Oscars, our Festivals Editor Dallas King makes his predictions on what will win, what should win and who should have been nominated.

Best Picture

Nomadland is the clear favourite but the preferential ballot system of ranking all the nominees has led to some interesting results in previous years (La La Land & Moonlight anyone?). Realistically the only film that could stop the Nomadland juggernaut is Promising Young Woman. It is surprising not to see Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom make the cut given it could have both leading actor winners in it.

The Father

Judas And The Black Messiah

Mank

Minari

Nomadland (Will Win)

Promising Young Woman

Sound Of Metal

The Trial Of The Chicago 7

Should have been nominated: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Director

Lee Isaac Chung – Minari

Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman

David Fincher – Mank

Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round

Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

Should have been nominated: Christopher Nolan (Tenet)

Actor In A Leading Role

In any other year, Hopkins would have walked it for his heartbreaking performance in The Father but Boseman looks set to win a posthumous Oscar for his incendiary role in Ma Rainey, a fitting tribute to a talent that will be sorely missed.

Riz Ahmed – Sound Of Metal

Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Will Win)

Anthony Hopkins – The Father (Should Win)

Gary Oldman – Mank

Steven Yeun – Minari

Should have been nominated – Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)

Actress In A Leading Role

To be honest, this is anyone’s game with the exception of Kirby given that each other actress has bagged one of the major awards.

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Andra Day – Billie Holliday Versus The World

Vanessa Kirby – Pieces Of A Woman

Frances McDormand – Nomadland

Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (Will Win & Should Win)

Should have been nominated: Elizabeth Moss (The Invisible Man)

Actor In A Supporting Role

Kaluuya has been the favourite all awards season, sweeping every major award for his well deserved performance. However, the appearance of Stanfield in the category (which poses the question of who is the lead if both Judas and the Black Messiah are supporting), could lead to a split of the vote allowing Paul Raci to nip in and steal the award.

Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial Of The Chicago 7

Daniel Kaluuya – Judas And The Black Messiah

Leslie Odom Jr – One Night In Miami

Paul Raci – Sound Of Metal

Lakeith Stanfield – Judas And The Black Messiah

Should have been nominated: Mark Rylance (The Trial Of The Chicago 7)

Actress In A Supporting Role

This category was shaping up to be as unpredictable as Best Actress but on the final lap, Yuh-Jung Yeun looks set to become the first Korean actor to win an Oscar.

Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

Olivia Colman – The Father

Amanda Seyfried – Mank

Yuh-Jung Yeun – Minari

Should have been nominated: Ellen Burstyn (Pieces Of A Woman)

Original Screenplay

Judas And The Black Messiah

Minari

Promising Young Woman

Sound Of Metal

The Trial Of The Chicago 7

Should have been nominated: Palm Springs

Adapted Screenplay

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

The Father (Will Win & Should Win)

Nomadland

One Night In Miami

The White Tiger

Should have been nominated: The Invisible Man

Animated Feature

In increasing danger of becoming the Oscar For Best Pixar Film, it would be nice to see an upset and Wolfwalkers take home the gold.

Onward

Over The Moon

A Shaun The Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

Soul (Will Win)

Wolfwalkers (Should Win)

International Feature Film

Fresh of the BAFTA win for Best Film In A Foreign Language, Another Round is the favourite to win. Especially given Thomas Vinterberg has a Directing nomination as well. The only film which could cause an upset would be the stunning and harrowing Quo Vadis Aida?

Another Round (Will Win & Should Win)

Better Days

Collective

The Man Who Sold His Skin

Quo Vadis, Aida?

Should have been nominated: Apples

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